Project name: Prospects and Risks of Semi-Presidentialism in Conditions of Democratic Transition, Turbulence, and War: Quantitative and Statistical Comparative Analysis
Coordinator: Professor at the Department of Political Science, Doctor of Political Science, Vitaliy Lytvyn, Ivan Franko National University of Lviv

Assistant: MA student at the Department of Political Science, Nazar Demchenko
Duration: October 1, 2024 – December 31, 2025
Funding: Center for Governance and Culture in Europe (GCE) through the University of St. Gallen (HSG)
Partners: University of St. Gallen (HSG), NGO “Center for Political Studies. Lviv”, Ivan Franko National University of Lviv (Department of Political Science)

This research and partly educational project aims to conduct a comparative analysis and highlight the consequences and risks of various types of semi-presidential systems of government (semi-presidentialism) in countries undergoing political transition, turbulence, military conflicts, and crises in general.

📌 Main objectives of the project:

• Identify common and distinct trends in the development of countries with semi-presidential systems of government in conditions of war/crisis, turbulence, and exogenous shocks (applies to nascent countries with hybrid political regimes, similar to Ukraine);
• Extrapolate the comparative conclusions obtained to Ukraine in the context of war, post-war development and reconstruction, and European integration;
• Apply quantitative and statistical methods for comparative analysis of institutional/political stability, levels of democracy/autocracy, GDP, and other political and socio-economic indicators.

• Quantitative and statistical comparative analysis of data;
• Mathematical and statistical models and correlations for comparing the effects of different types of semi-presidentialism;
• Correlation analysis of political and socio-economic indicators and the effects of semi-presidentialism.

---

📌 Publications or research manuscripts within the framework of the project:

• Lytvyn V., Demchenko N., Babenko V., Osadchuk І. Prospects and Risks of Semi-Presidentialism in Conditions of Democratic Transition, Turbulence, and War: Comparative and Statistical Analysis. Acta Politologica. 2025 (under review).
• Lytvyn V., Demchenko N. The Dynamics of Semi-Presidentialism in Turbulent Times: Focusing on Institutional Design and External Factors and their Theoretical Implications for Democratic Transitions. Studium Europy Srodkowej i Wschodniej. 2024. Nr. 22 (accepted and ready for publication).
• Lytvyn V., Demchenko N. Semi-Presidentialism at a Crossroads and Incomplete Political Transition in Ukraine: Dilemmas of Democratization, Stability, and Presidentialization Before, During, and After the War. Studium Europy Srodkowej i Wschodniej. 2025. Nr. 23 (accepted and ready for publication).
• Литвин В., Демченко Н. Ефекти напівпрезиденталізму в умовах транзиту, криз та війн: порівняльний аналіз. Політичні дослідження. 2025. № 2 (10) (under review).
• Литвин В., Демченко Н. Демократичний транзит в умовах напівпрезиденталізму і збройних конфліктів: статистичний розріз та порівняльний аналіз на прикладі країн Східної і Південно-Східної Європи. Тези звітної наукової конференції філософського факультету / Відп. за випуск О. Квас, О. Сарабун. Львів, 2025. Вип. 22. С. 94–98.

📌 Student research:

• Course paper (research): Features and effects of different types of systems of government in the context of international and civil armed conflicts: Statistical and correlation analysis. Nazar Demchenko, 2025.

---

📌 Public combined lecture-workshop for students on the topic “Prospects and Risks of Semi-Presidentialism in Conditions of Democratic Transition, Turbulence, and War”
Date: May 27, 2025
Location: Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, Department of Political Science
Speakers: Prof. Vitaliy Lytvyn, MA student Nazar Demchenko
Audience: BA and MA students
Format: open lecture with presentation of research results
Materials: Presentation (PDF)

---

• Assoc. Prof. Volodymyr Babenko – Associate Professor, Department of Higher Mathematics, Ivan Franko National University of Lviv
• Assoc. Prof. Igor Osadchuk – Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Ivan Franko National University of Lviv

👥 Partners:

• University of St. Gallen (HSG)
• NGO “Center for Political Studies. Lviv”
• Ivan Franko National University of Lviv (Department of Political Science)

The project was implemented with financial support from the Center for Governance and Culture in Europe (GCE) through the University of St. Gallen (HSG).